India Losing It’s Biggest Asset In Pakistan

By: Zaid Hamid

This article is extracted from a situation report released by BRASSTACKS, a security and defense analysis firm.



ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—“Fighting insurgency is like eating soup with a knife. It is always long and messy affair”—Lawrence of Arabia.

Pakistan’s most wanted man among the militants fighting the state is Baitullah Mehsud. He is under pressure now as he has been abandoned by his mentor, Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

Last week we wrote the following note about him:

“Once Baitullah Mehsud and his Uzbek allies of Tahir Yeldeshev group were isolated within the local Taliban and abandoned by the Afghan Taliban, the government decided to go after this terrorist with full force. These are the most difficult times for Baitullah Mehsud who is now under pressure from all sides and is being convinced by his friends to leave the area and escape to Afghanistan. He is reluctant as he does not want to fight the Americans since he was paid by the Indians and perhaps the Israelis to fight Pakistan army. For the first time, he has sent tribal Jirgas to political parties and the government trying to find terms for peace. He is desperate now and the pressure is increasing upon him. The entire Mehsud tribe is suffering because of him and there is also local pressure on him to stop his militant activity against Pakistan. This is the time to neutralize him. All he wants is time to regroup and reorganzie after taking serious losses in the past few weeks. The Swat rebellion is almost crushed, the Darra Adamkhel rebellion is also beaten to pulp and his own base of South Waziristan is now under siege with fears of being over run by the Federal forces. If Pakistan army can remain focused, Indians are about to lose their prime asset in the tribal regions and obviously Baitullah is panicking.”

Our last week’s analysis was confirmed this week as Mehsud offered peace terms to the government for the first time in years. He is under sever pressure but wants a face saving exit.